By Kevin Judge | February 1, 2019
Spectacular job and wage report this morning! For the second month in a row new jobs are 80% higher than the consensus forecast. Anyone betting on a recession this year has got the wrong horse.
I have a close friend who’s a senior manager are a major Financial firm. He’s been telling me that their analysts are forecasting a recession in the near future, and the company is undergoing major cutbacks and spending constraints of to prepare for it. The constraints may be helpful, but once again the experts are wrong. They’ve been predicting a recession in the near future going back to the election year 2016. Someday they will be right but not in 2019.
In fact, recent forecast downgrading estimated GDP for 2019 at 1.8% are starting to look like a joke. I would be surprised if we don’t hit the 3% mark that has become somewhat of a magic number. While I think we can even do better than that, it’s clear now that the Obama’s era conventional wisdom that the country could not maintain 3% growth without without overheating was mere excuse making for bad economic policies.
Trump, like Ronald Reagan, has been called a dunce. However, if they were so dumb how come they were consistently right about economics and their critics consistently wrong. the answer is that you don’t have to be a genius to have common sense. Free market capitalism works every time it is tried.
As one of Trump’s closest advisers likes to say, it is “the best path to prosperity”.